Magazine Issue 11 Summer 2000


CARBON GENERATIONS

An Iroquian chief writes: "Traditionally when native communities have faced tough decisions, it is the women who have advocated taking a long view. Among the Iroquian People, a matriarchal society, it is believed that leaders must consider the impact of their decisions on seven generations." We are faced with tough decisions. Decisions the consequences of which not only reach forward, but the roots of which reach back.

In the dictionary a generation is 30 years. Taking this as a framework means that seven generations covers approximately 210 years. This may seem like a lengthy period but most people will have met their grandparents so, as with Ruth and Raven, the two people pictured here, the time span becomes tangible.

1861
First oil reaches England, two years after the first modern oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania. Didn't arrive in noticeable quantities until a decade later, the early 70s

1870
Ruth’s greatgrandmother, Lily, born.

Average global temperature: 14.98 0C

1895
First motor car demonstration drive - London to Tunbridge Wells
Greatgrandmother Lily is amongst those lining the route, craning her neck to see the spectacle. Becomes first member of family to witness the 'horseless carriage'

1900
Ruth’s grandfather, Thomas, born.

Average global temperature: 15.18 0C

1907
Lily, remembering her own fascination as a child, takes Ruth’s grandfather Thomas on a day trip to Brooklands in Surrey, the site of the world's first specially-designed motor racing course. He takes home a souvenir miniature racing car

1914
During World War I coal-fired battleships are replaced by oil-fired

1932
Ruth’s mother, Margaret, born.

Average global temperature: 15.17 0C

1936
Shell and BP establish joint oil exploration company in Nigeria

1942
Oil underpins way in which grandfather Thomas serves his country during the war. Spends his military service years as a van driver

1957
First plastic bottle used commercially

1958
Ruth’s parents buy their first car. Her father dreams of one day owning a Mercedes sports car. He sees the average lifespan in terms of ownership of seven cars. This is the beginning.
Ogoniland, Nigeria. Discovery of commercially viable quantities of oil at Bori

1960
Cars have been the rhythm beneath Ruth's whole life. As her parents drive to visit her grandparents the unborn Ruth has her first car journey

1961
Ruth born

M1 opened - the first motorway in the UK. Thirty years later, the miles of tarmac covering the countryside were to provoke an upsurge in direct action against ‘motorway madness’

Average global temperature: 15.33 0C

1977
After 63 years of being a UK government agency BP is set loose from being a national oil company - to become a transnational. The UK government sells 14.5% of shares in BP. At 66.7 million shares this is the largest single share sale attempted at that time. It is worth nearly £600 million.

Ruth’s mother Margaret spends two days baking for a street party to celebrate Queen Elizabeth II's Silver Jubilee

1982
Ruth passes driving test at second attempt. For her, 21years old and keen to be ‘independent’, this is identified as giving her freedom

1991
Gulf War on TV

1993
Raven born

Average global temperature: 15.50 0C

1994
Pneumonic plague resurfaces in India

1995
Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight others campaigning against devastation caused by oil extraction in the Niger Delta are condemned to death. The wives of the condemned men tried to take a meal to their husbands but were not allowed into the prison. “Oh God, what am I going to do? He is the only thing I have in the world,” sobbed Hauwa Saro-Wiwa at a news conference later that night.

The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that "the balance of evidence suggests there is a discernable human influence on global climate"

1996
Ruth is charged with ‘obstruction of the sheriff’ - one of almost 1,000 arrests during the 'Third Battle of Newbury'. In the wake of the campaign against the Newbury bypass approximately 500 of the 600 road schemes originally proposed in 1989 have been scrapped

1997
The UK Met Office states that the 1997 /8 El Nino was "the most extreme on record". It brings violent downpours and landslides in the Atacama, one of the driest deserts in the world, and demolishes entire coffee plantations in Mexico. On the other side of the Pacific Papua New Guinea declares a state of emergency as crops fail. Fires rage in Indonesia, months after being lit by forest clearers, and burrow down into the forest’s massive peat bogs, releasing into the atmosphere carbon that had been stored over the past 10,000 years.

Agreement reached on Kyoto Protocol. For the first time it meant some commitment by governments in the North to legally binding obligations to reduce greenhouse gases. Problems in realising these agreed reductions to follow.

2000
Ruth’s parents, now retired, discover foreign travel. Spend pension and free time on visiting new places. In this year they visit Venice in northern Italy. Outward flight involved travelling about 1,000 kilometres with perhaps 130 passengers and collectively consumed about 7,500 litres of aviation fuel; 58 litres or 15 gallons each.

A Christian Aid report states that 9 of the past 11 catastrophes to which it has responded have been caused by extreme weather conditions. The same report claims that 16 million people in the horn of Africa, including those in Ethiopia and the Sudan, face starvation and have had their lives shattered by the failure of rains for the third year running. It calls on the world’s wealthiest countries to cut emissions of greenhouse gases.

2028
Ruth’s grandchild Alex born.

Average global temperature: 16.05 0C

2058
Greatgrandchild Kate born. She is the seventh of the Carbon Generations.

Average global temperature: 16.60 0C

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In 1995 Dr Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute wrote that on a per capita basis the UK needs to cut its carbon emissions by over 90%. In the late 1990s the annual emissions for a typical household was over 25 tonnes. A member of the sixth Carbon Generation, for example, will have to live on 10% of Ruth’s current CO2 emissions.

What will this mean? Will cars again become a rich person’s vehicle? Will mass air travel come to be seen as a blip that lasted maybe two generations? And what about the food that we eat, currently transported around the globe from land far away? What about the ways in which we work, the technology we currently rely upon? What will this mean for how we live?

Average global temperatures are IPCC figures - future predictions are from GCI based on Business-As-Usual from IPCC figures. Based on work by Platform